July 2, 2024: Maybe America’s presidential election is still a little bit too far away. Anyone wanting immediate excitement should look no further than France on July 7.
The European nation is closer than ever in its modern history to being largely governed by the far right led by the National Rally Party. Parliamentary elections which have been half-way through are the country’s most consequential in decades and will have huge implications across Europe and for the United States, politically, diplomatically and militarily.
France’s status quo led by French President Emmanuel Macron could adjust their candidates and still have the possibility of blocking France’s first far right government since World War II, a likely change that will be unleash great ramifications domestically and internationally.
The far right already has one foot in the corridor of power and a lot of analysts believe that the surging movement would try to become “more mainstream” by avoiding to look so extreme. The movement is known to be vehemently against many things the “liberals” or “centrists” like, including the policies of NATO and the United States.
It did extremely well in the first round of the elections days ago, but the liberals will throw the kitchen sink in the second round, in which candidates that did poorly in the first will likely take no part as a last-ditch effort to prevent another sweeping victory of National Rally.
The irresistible surge of the far right is said to be a reason why President Macron has appeared of two minds in public lately. One day he would say something to please the rightists, only to conduct himself as a “liberal” the next.
Did he dissolve the elected Parliament to open the door for the far right, or was he just egoistic and tried to prove that the country democratically did not want a massive change?
He has been vocally anti-extremism over the past few days, though.
The National Rally’s leader, Marine Le Pen, seems to still push forward anti-immigration, anti-foreigner policies. She’s still perceived by many analysts as fundamentally anti-European, anti-American as well. How the party will co-exist and share powers with Macron has been a big question mark.
Parties opposed to National Rally are ganging up against it. Hopeless candidates not standing a chance have been urged to drop out of the second round, in order to get more votes to those first-round losers who have stronger potentials.
France’s president and prime minister constitute a special governing system considered “semi-presidential”. The president is relatively aloof from day-to-day affairs compared with the prime minister. Think of the former as a company’s chairman and the latter as the CEO. When they are the same page, it’s great. If they disagree or quarrel, there can be a big problem.
When the president’s political backers control Parliament, the president becomes dominant in executive affairs, being able to influence government appointments, for example. But when the president’s political opponents control Parliament, things naturally get tough.
July 1, 2024: The latest Dusit Poll says what everyone knows and probably feels, which is that Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin is not Thailand’s most popular man and political fatigue is prevalent.
Dusit Poll surveyed more than 2,300 Thais last week. The findings say Move Forward’s Pita Limjaroenrat (54.5%) is more popular than Srettha (43.8%).
It’s a rating that can make both men ambivalent. Pita might have expected more and Srettha might consider himself lucky because it could have been worse.
To add to that, Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra (25.6%) is more popular than Move Forward leader Chaithawat Tulathon (20.6%).
At 30.5%, Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul is above both Paetongtarn and Chaithawat. If the interior minister and deputy prime minister has been flying under the radar, the radar will soon start to make noises.
He can arguably be the happiest man in the aftermath of the release of the latest Dusit Poll findings.
Dusit Poll says Thais feel that everything political more or less has been below their expectations, namely the opposition’s performance, the prime minister’s performance, the administration’s overall performance, political stability, how politicians behave, the general economy, the justice system, unemployment and the tackling of narcotic drugs and dark powers.
Daily updates of local and global events by Tulsathit Taptim
