July 5, 2024: Amid whirlwind global and domestic politics, one figure escaped much public attention over the past few days.
That figure is one million. Which leads to a tantalizing question: How many children and youths who have had to drop out of school would benefit if the ruling Pheu Thai Party turned its controversial flagship policy, digital wallet, into a full-scale rescue mission for the youngsters?
Digital wallet requires some Bt500 billion which the government intends to extract from state budget rearrangements and borrowing from the farmers’ bank. Most Thais, entitled or not, would receive free money to buy goods from government-designated sellers.
Digital wallet is controversial for a few main reasons: It is blanket, meaning those not so needy would get the money, allegedly defies monetary disciplines of the state, and unnecessarily (also allegedly) requires creation and instalment of a new app while an old one should do.
Imagine Bt50,000 is allocated for each school dropout. That would cost just Bt50 billion. Double the help and it would amount to only Bt100 billion. If the government is serious about its zero dropout policy, this should do it.
And it is a moral, economic (children are every country’s future) and political win-win. Critics would shut their mouths. The central bank would go silent. The media would sing praises in unison.
Just a thought.
July 4, 2024: The White House has dismissed the chances that Joe Biden will withdraw from the presidential race. A few Democratic “doubters” in high places have either made a U-turn or significantly eased their opposition to his candidacy.
But his and the United States’ futures remain highly uncertain.
The most important difference between the Republicans and Democrats at the moment is that while Trump is not dispensable, Biden is. The Republican Party had to go for Trump despite all his big legal and political troubles because he is its only chance to beat a Democratic candidate. The other side, meanwhile, has been dictated by a “Whoever can beat Trump” mentality, meaning that if it has to be anyone but Biden, then so be it.
So, the name of Michelle Obama has become the most-favoured, although she said time and again that she would never run, that even life of being a First Lady was tough enough when her husband, Barack Obama, was president. Current Vice President Kamala Harris has thus been the next best thing.
Both ladies have, in public at least, showed full support for Biden. And so have a few Democratic governors tipped to be a replacement. Yet nobody know what they are thinking. There have been whispers that Barack Obama, who has publicly expressed total backing for Biden, cannot see the president beating Trump in November.
And although she is guarding Biden’s primary entitlement as a lioness protecting her cub, Jill Biden has said one sentence that aroused curiosity. She said her husband “would do anything that is best for the country.” On the one hand, she was saying so while defending his working records. On the other hand, that little statement has been wildly interpreted as a suggestion that he would do anything to guarantee that Trump would lose.
So, the replacement door has not been slammed shut. There will continue to be speculation, rumours or even real turmoil up until the Democratic national convention in August. Even the pro-Biden camp seems currently unsure what should be done. Should they stick with him and thus give Trump a great chance to win? Or should they replace him and risk a bigger catastrophe that could be so hard to recover from _ being seen as a grand liar who knew about his conditions all along but decided to keep it a secret against the principles of transparency and democracy?
July 3, 2024: Can Jill Biden stop the lengthening “Biden out” bandwagon?
She has been demonised by many people in America and much of the world, and now it seems the most-maligned First Lady in memory stands between growing attempts to remove him as the Democratic presidential candidate and his fading chance to get the second White House term.
The “Biden out” narrative is increasingly widespread, ironically among the Democrats and their supporters. The Republicans naturally want him to stay in the race, because they think the man stands no chance against Donald Trump in November.
In fact, a conspiracy theory has begun to strike a chord among some Republicans, who are suspecting that Joe Biden was intentionally hung out to dry last week so that he could be replaced in time.
What caused the suspicion was the fact that the debate was the earliest in US history, noticeably before the Democratic national convention during which the presidential candidate would be formally named and that would be a point of no return.
As belligerent after the debate as Joe Biden has appeared to be, he will listen to his wife about what to do next. Conspiracy or no conspiracy, a lot will depend on Jill Biden. She will influence how things develop that would affect not just America but the whole world.
So far, she is ferociously determined to see him run. That is the reason why the much of the world has condemned the woman, questioning her love for him.
Although she physically assisted the visibly-wobble Joe Biden in public several times including after last week’s fateful debate, a lot of people are saying that if she truly loves him, making him continue is out of the question.
July 2, 2024: Maybe America’s presidential election is still a little bit too far away. Anyone wanting immediate excitement should look no further than France on July 7.
The European nation is closer than ever in its modern history to being largely governed by the far right led by the National Rally Party. Parliamentary elections which have been half-way through are the country’s most consequential in decades and will have huge implications across Europe and for the United States, politically, diplomatically and militarily.
France’s status quo led by French President Emmanuel Macron could adjust their candidates and still have the possibility of blocking France’s first far right government since World War II, a likely change that will be unleash great ramifications domestically and internationally.
The far right already has one foot in the corridor of power and a lot of analysts believe that the surging movement would try to become “more mainstream” by avoiding to look so extreme. The movement is known to be vehemently against many things the “liberals” or “centrists” like, including the policies of NATO and the United States.
It did extremely well in the first round of the elections days ago, but the liberals will throw the kitchen sink in the second round, in which candidates that did poorly in the first will likely take no part as a last-ditch effort to prevent another sweeping victory of National Rally.
The irresistible surge of the far right is said to be a reason why President Macron has appeared of two minds in public lately. One day he would say something to please the rightists, only to conduct himself as a “liberal” the next.
Did he dissolve the elected Parliament to open the door for the far right, or was he just egoistic and tried to prove that the country democratically did not want a massive change?
He has been vocally anti-extremism over the past few days, though.
The National Rally’s leader, Marine Le Pen, seems to still push forward anti-immigration, anti-foreigner policies. She’s still perceived by many analysts as fundamentally anti-European, anti-American as well. How the party will co-exist and share powers with Macron has been a big question mark.
Parties opposed to National Rally are ganging up against it. Hopeless candidates not standing a chance have been urged to drop out of the second round, in order to get more votes to those first-round losers who have stronger potentials.
France’s president and prime minister constitute a special governing system considered “semi-presidential”. The president is relatively aloof from day-to-day affairs compared with the prime minister. Think of the former as a company’s chairman and the latter as the CEO. When they are the same page, it’s great. If they disagree or quarrel, there can be a big problem.
When the president’s political backers control Parliament, the president becomes dominant in executive affairs, being able to influence government appointments, for example. But when the president’s political opponents control Parliament, things naturally get tough.
July 1, 2024: The latest Dusit Poll says what everyone knows and probably feels, which is that Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin is not Thailand’s most popular man and political fatigue is prevalent.
Dusit Poll surveyed more than 2,300 Thais last week. The findings say Move Forward’s Pita Limjaroenrat (54.5%) is more popular than Srettha (43.8%).
It’s a rating that can make both men ambivalent. Pita might have expected more and Srettha might consider himself lucky because it could have been worse.
To add to that, Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra (25.6%) is more popular than Move Forward leader Chaithawat Tulathon (20.6%).
At 30.5%, Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul is above both Paetongtarn and Chaithawat. If the interior minister and deputy prime minister has been flying under the radar, the radar will soon start to make noises.
He can arguably be the happiest man in the aftermath of the release of the latest Dusit Poll findings.
Dusit Poll says Thais feel that everything political more or less has been below their expectations, namely the opposition’s performance, the prime minister’s performance, the administration’s overall performance, political stability, how politicians behave, the general economy, the justice system, unemployment and the tackling of narcotic drugs and dark powers.
Daily updates of local and global events by Tulsathit Taptim
